Donald Trump may come out shining after his bruising civil fraud trial that hit him with an enormous fine of almost half a billion dollars, a legal analyst says. 

‘$4 Billion Payday’

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The former president might even make $4 billion as part of an upcoming deal — more than enough to pay off a series of otherwise crippling fines, says retired lawyer and author David Moskowitz.

‘Victory’ for Trump 

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In an opinion article for USA Today, Moskowitz — author of The Judge and the President: Stealing the 2020 Election, a book that looks at the fallout of the 2020 election that Trump lost to Joe Biden and indictments against Trump — argues that Trump will come out victorious after his recent legal battles. 

Verdict ‘Not Fatal’ Blow

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He writes that despite the New York Judge’s “decision [that] imposes a hefty set of sanctions, I do not think it will be fatal to either Trump’s finances or his business organization.”

The Fraud Trial 

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Trump, his adult sons Donald Jr and Eric and former executives of their Trump Organization real estate company were found guilty of committing “years of fraud” by lying about the value of their assets to get favorable loans and insurance. Judge Arthur Engoron appointed a monitor to oversee the business and canceled some of its licenses. And he fined the defendants $354 million, but with prejudgment interest, the sum rises to over $450 million. 

Appeal of Verdict

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Trump has appealed Judge Engoron’s decision, and meanwhile the fine amount rises by $112,000 per day until it is paid. Trump lawyer Alina Habba said on Monday that she was asking the appeal court to “overturn this egregious fine and take the necessary steps to restore the public faith in New York’s legal system.”

Basis for Appeal

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Trump’s legal team said in a court filing that the basis for their appeal was potential “errors of law and/or fact” in Judge Engron’s ruling and if his Manhattan court had “abused its discretion” or “acted in excess of its jurisdiction.”

Trump ‘On Cliff Edge Before’

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Moskowitz notes in his USA Today article that it’s not the first time that Trump has faced seemingly insurmountable problems. He writes: “Trump has been on the edge of the cliff before. For example, Trump-owned companies operating in Atlantic City filed for Chapter 11 four times between 1991 and 2009. But none of them proved fatal to Trump’s real estate empire.”

‘Masterful’ Trump 

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He said: “Trump has been masterful in converting his numerous litigation hurdles into opportunities for campaigning and fundraising. He portrays himself as the victim of malicious enemies rather than the perpetrator of fraudulent business activities. Most of his supporters do not believe he committed fraud.”

Trump’s Merger Plan 

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As for Trump’s potential to reap $4 billion in a deal, the former lawyer says it is due to the approval of a merger by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Trump Media & Technology Group and Digital World Acquisition Corp. The former is an entity that owns Trump’s Truth Social network, which he set up after being banned from Twitter in the wake of the January 6, 2021, riots at the US Capitol. And the latter is a “blank check” enterprise formed to acquire businesses and raise capital in initial public offerings on stock exchanges. Moskowitz estimates that if the newly merged company floats, it could net Trump in the region of $4 billion. 

‘Will Trump Survive?’

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Moskowitz said that if “Trump wins reelection, he’ll be able to shelve the federal criminal cases or even pardon himself. He also may be able to negotiate a plea deal in the Georgia case on trying to steal the 2020 election, avoiding prison and allowing him to continue as president. The $4 billion question is: Will Trump survive yet another crisis?”

Trump’s Other Problems

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Trump, 77, has also been hit with an $83.3 million fine after being found guilty by a jury in New York last month of defaming writer E. Jean Carroll. And he has been indicted four times and faces a total of 91 criminal charges that could send him to prison for the rest of his life if found guilty. Trump denies all the charges and says they are “politically motivated” by Democrats trying to stop him from becoming president again. 

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Donald Trump says the United States will suffer its biggest stock market crash ever if he is not elected president in November. His fiery remarks ahead of the South Carolina primary on Saturday echo equally divisive comments about wanting a stock market crash to occur this year. 

November 5 Focus 

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Trump said he was not concerned about the South Carolina results but was fixed on the November 5 election date. He told supporters at a rally in Rock Hill: “We’re not very worried about tomorrow. We want to aim for November 5.”

South Carolina Win

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Trump scored a fourth Republican primary win on Saturday by taking South Carolina by a landslide, just as he did in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. He won 59.8 percent of the vote compared to 39.5 percent for Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina and his only remaining opponent after others dropped out. 

Would Abolish ‘Bidenomics’

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Trump told the South Carolina crowd that should get back to the White House, he would do away with President Biden’s economic policies – collectively known as Bidenomics. 

‘Didn’t Work’

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He said: “With your vote, we will vanquish Bidenomics, which is a very negative term, you know. He [Biden] heard the term; he loved it. No, that’s a really bad term. It didn’t work.”

New ‘MAGA Policies’

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Instead, Trump said, if he becomes president again he would introduce new economic policies aligned with this Make America Great Again (MAGA) campaign slogan and movement.”

‘MAGAnomics’ Instead

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Trump said to cheers that we would “reinstate MAGAnomics. That’s right. You guessed it. And we will bring our country back from hell; our country’s been through hell.”

‘Stock Market Crash’

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But Trump warned: “If we lose (the presidential election), you’re going to have a crash like you wouldn’t believe.”

‘Largest Ever Crash’

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And he said, in a direct warning to stock market investors: “If we lose – that’s an incentive, if you have stock – if we have a tragedy happen on November 5 – it would be a tragedy – in the opinion of many and in my opinion, you will have the largest stock market crash we have ever had.”

‘Crash This Year’

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In January, Trump came under fire for saying he hoped there would be a stock market crash this year, because if he won the election in November, he wouldn’t want to preside over an economic downturn, the way former President Herbert Hoover did during the Great Depression, which lasted a decade from 1929. 

‘Next 12 Months’ Hope

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Trump said: “When there’s a crash, I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover. The one president – I just don’t want to be Herbert Hoover.”

Trump’s Indictments 

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Trump also told his supporters at the rally in South Carolina that 91 criminal charges he is fighting that are contained in four indictments against him were nonsense.

The Charges

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Trump, 77, faces the prospect of the rest of his life in prison if found guilty over the indictments. Two allege he plotted to overturn the result of the 2020 election he lost to Joe Biden and prevent the peaceful transfer of power. Two others say he mishandled top-secret documents and falsified accounting to cover up payments to a former adult film actress so she wouldn’t disclose an alleged affair with him. Trump has denied all the charges and says they amount to a “politically motivated witch hunt” by Democrats trying to stop him from becoming president again.  

Trump v. Biden?

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If Trump becomes the Republican nominee for the 2020 election, he will likely run against President Biden – in a replay of the 2020 vote – as the incumbent is the leading Democratic candidate for its nomination. 

Biden’s Economic ‘Success’

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President Biden, 81, is touting his administration’s “success” in turning around an economy ravaged by years of the coronavirus pandemic. A feared recession has not occurred and unemployment is down, but, critically, inflation remains stubbornly high and is eating into Americans’ pockets with soaring prices of food and fuel. 

Inflation ‘the Main Voter Worry’ 

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The majority of American voters want their leaders to focus on inflation and not the wider economy, polls suggest, in a possible difficulty for President Biden when one of Trump’s campaign pledges is to bring inflation down. Trump says he will also impose trade tariffs on imports that are aimed at spurring domestic production and boosting the economy. 

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Will President Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race, and if so, who will replace him? Those are two of the most pressing questions buzzing around Washington and the entire country, say political analysts, as fears continue to grow over the President’s age and ability. 

Biden Replacement Desire 

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And now, in a new poll, almost half of American voters say they think President Biden will be replaced, and they’d like former first lady Michelle Obama to take his place. 

Obama as the Ideal Candidate

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A total of 47 percent of people who say they will be voting on November 5 believe Democrats will likely replace Biden, a poll by Rasmussen Reports suggests. Around 20 percent supported Michelle Obama as the replacement.

How Likely Is a Switch?

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The aforementioned 47 percent statistic includes 22 percent who say they see Biden being replaced as “very likely.” This compares to 45 percent who don’t think it will happen and 18 percent who said a switch of candidate for the presidential election was “not at all likely.”

Biden’s Age Problem

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President Biden is 81 and will be another year older by time the election comes around in November. Earlier this month he was described by Special Counsel Robert Hur as an “elderly man with a poor memory,” following an investigation into Biden’s handling of classified documents. And Biden has made a string of blunders that included trips and falls as well as rambling and incoherent remarks at press conferences and in interviews. The majority of Democratic voters think he is too old to run again or be in the White House for another four years, polls show. 

Biden’s Reelection Chances

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While age concerns about President Biden persist, he remains high in national polling, with around 70 percent support among Democratic voters. And he has just two rivals for the party’s nomination, author Marianne Williamson, who has just restarted her campaign after withdrawing from the race earlier in February, and Congressman Dean Phillips – both of whom are in single digits in national polls. 

Other Replacement Picks

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With Michelle Obama as their top choice, voters in the Rasmussen Reports survey would also like California Governor Gavin Newsom, Vice President Kamala Harris and former first lady Hillary Clinton to take Biden’s place. 

The Possible Candidates

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Newsom, 56, has long been touted as a Democratic candidate for the presidency, but he has said he is not running. Harris, 59, is again President Biden’s running mate. And Clinton, 76, has campaigned for the presidency twice, in 2008 and 2016, when she lost to Donald Trump. She says she will not make a third attempt to become the first female President of the United States. 

Michelle Obama’s Popularity 

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Michelle Obama, 60, remains hugely popular among Democrats, as does her husband, former President Barack Obama. The pair spent two terms at the White House, from 2009 to 2017. Since leaving office, they have written books, worked on media projects that include podcasts and a partnership between their production company Michelle Obama and Netflix.  

Michelle Obama’s Election Fears

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While Michelle Obama has not said if she could join the presidential race, she is closely watching events as the November general election nears, say political analysts. She said in a podcast interview in January that she was “terrified about what could possibly happen” in November “because our leaders matter.” 

Repeat of 2020?

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She said: “We cannot take this democracy for granted. And sometimes I worry that we do.” That was a likely reference, say political observers, to the potential for unrest in a possible repeat of the 2020 election that then-President Trump lost to Joe Biden but insisted the vote was “rigged” and “stolen.” As he challenged the results in court, ultimately to no avail, Trump called on his supporters to protest the outcome on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021, in a demonstration that turned into an attack on the seat of US democracy in which five people were killed. 

Against Donald Trump?

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Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will most likely have to run against former President Donald Trump, who at 77 is also facing questions about his ability and advanced age, given a recent series of his own blunders. Polls also show that most Americans think he is too old to run again. 

GOP Race

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Trump’s only opponent for the GOP nomination is Nikki Haley, after others, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, ended their campaigns following disappointing primary votes. While Haley – Trump’s former ambassador to the UN and an ex-governor of South Carolina – is a relatively youthful 52 and has taken aim at Trump’s age, she is far behind him in national polling and has yet to win a primary. 

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Residents of Washington are aiming to make sure a longtime ban on income taxes in the state becomes permanent, and lawmakers heard their initiative for the first time earlier this week. 

Local Resident Backing 

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The Washington Supreme Court ruled in 1933 that residents of the state did not have to pay income taxes, and local resident and businessman Brian Heywood is among those pushing to ensure it stays that way. 

Heywood Initiative Funding 

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Heywood, a “megadonor” to the Washington State Republican Party and who has been described as a “conservative influencer,” is bankrolling six ballot initiatives including one relating to a permanent income tax ban, called Initiative 2111.

Other Initiatives

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The wealthy donor is also funding initiatives on removing restrictions on police pursuits in Washington, more parental rights for reviewing educational materials and letting people leave the state’s long term care coverage. Two others deal with a proposed cancellation of Washington’s capital gains tax, which is currently 7 percent and a rollback of the state’s Climate Commitment Act.  

An Uphill Battle?

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Heywood is joined in pushing for the changes by State Representative Jim Walsh, Republican of Aberdeen, but political analysts suggest they may have an uphill battle in trying to convince lawmakers in the Democratic state to adopt their measures. 

Agreement on Three Initiative Hearings

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Of the six initiatives backed by Republicans, lawmakers said they would have hearings for three, including the one about income tax. The hearings don’t mean the initiatives will be adopted and become law but they are an indication that it could happen, political observers say. 

Income Tax Permanent Ban ‘Least Contentious’

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In a possible boost to the income tax permanent ban initiative, which was well attended by lawmakers during a hearing on Tuesday, “it went off with little fanfare, underscoring that among the six initiatives, it might be the least contentious,” Seattle Times reporter Claire Withycombe said. 

‘Codify Ban in Law’

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Representative Walsh said: “Initiative 2111 is designed to do one thing, and that is codify in law the state’s longstanding tradition of not having an income tax ban on personal income.”

A ‘Fair’ Hearing

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Representative April Berg, Democrat of Mill Creek, chaired the hearing on Tuesday and she said it was about being fair. “You want to make sure that you’re directing traffic, you’re calling balls and strikes and you’re having a really good, fair hearing,” she said. 

Rags to Riches Story 

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Heywood, a farmer and hedge fund manager, grew up in poverty but is now a multimillionaire. He said in an interview with Fox 13 News in February: “I grew up very poor. You don’t realize you’re poor, kind of, as you’re growing up you don’t realize, and suddenly you do.” 

$6 Million on Initiatives

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He has spent around $6 million promoting the six initiatives and has collected around 2.6 million signatures in support of them, the news channel reported. 

‘Up to Heywood’

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Heywood said he felt compelled to push the initiatives in an attempt to make them law because no one else was doing it. He said “who is going to fight for it? No one is making the fight.”  

Not Republican v. Democrat 

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But despite mostly Republicans pushing for change in the state, Heywood says many Democrats were also in support. “Our model suggests that 57 percent of people that signed were Democrat or Independent and 43 percent were Republican. This is not a Republican screed,” he said.

‘Not for Personal Financial Gain’

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And he said that he didn’t want an end to capital gains tax because he would personally benefit, as some critics have suggested. “There is all this speculation, ‘Oh, he’s a hedge fund guy, so he’s only doing it for the capital gains tax,’” he said.

‘More Concerns About Washington Economy’

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Heywood added: “I can go to Florida and buy a $7 million house, have no income tax like [Amazon founder] Jeff Bezos, right? I can do that easily. From a business point of view, it makes no sense for me to do it this way. I am much more worried about the economy of Washington,” he said.

‘Some Democratic Opposition’

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Some Democratic state representatives have said, however, that they will not take part in hearings on some of the initiatives, particularly on the Climate Change Act, local media reported.

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Donald Trump has either claimed he is too wealthy to post a bond in a defamation trial that hit him with an $83.3 million penalty or not rich enough to afford a bond in a fraud ruling that left him with a fine of close to half a million, filings from his legal team show. 

Defamation Trial 

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The former President, 77, was found guilty in New York in January of defamation against magazine writer E. Jean Carroll and ordered to pay her $83.3 million in damages. Last year he was found guilty of sexual assault against Carroll and given a $5 million penalty. 

Trump’s Defamation Appeal

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Trump said he would appeal the defamation ruling but as the case was in New York, the law says he has to pay the full amount in escrow to an appellate court or post a bond – a form of guarantee from a specialist firm that will pay if the client loses, and charge them a percentage fee for the service. 

‘Should Not Have to Appeal’

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But Trump said that because he is so wealthy – Forbes magazine estimates he is worth around $2.6 billion from his real estate assets and available cash – that he should not have to post a bond in his defamation-ruling appeal. That is because, he argued, the fine was not a deterrent to him. 

Trump’s ‘Great Financial Resources’

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Trump’s lawyers said in a filing: “Having argued to the jury that President Trump has great financial resources, [Carroll] is in no position to contradict herself now and contend that she requires the protection of a bond during the brief period while post-trial motions are pending.”

Fraud Trial

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Trump and his adult sons Donald Jr and Eric were fined $354 million in January after another trial in New York City found them guilty of fraud at their Trump Organization real estate company. In charges brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James, they were found to have lied about the value to their assets in order to get cheap loans and insurance. But interest from before the ruling brings the fine up to $454 million. 

Fraud Appeal

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Trump said in deposition for the fraud trial that he had at least $400 million in cash at hand as the rest of his fortune was tied up in real estate assets. That means he has insufficient cash not only to pay for the fraud fine but also the defamation penalty. Last week, Trump’s legal team asked an appellate court to reduce the bond amount to just $100 million but it rejected the request after hearing from prosecutors, who argued against it. Trump has a month to pay the fraud fine since the order was signed last week and each day he does not pay, it increases by $112,000. 

Trump ‘Did Nothing Wrong’

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In a new post on his Truth Social account, Trump insisted he was not to blame for any of the allegations in his fraud trial. He said: “I did nothing wrong, except build a successful and very liquid company, owning some of the Greatest Properties in the World, and defeat Hillary Rodham Clinton and the Democrats in the 2016 Presidential Election, an Election which a Republican was not expected to win.” 

‘A Weaponized Attack’

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Trump continued: “I am now the Presumptive Republican Nominee, and likewise, dominating Joe Biden, the Democrat Nominee, in the Polls. This is a Weaponized Attack on Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, unlike anything that has happened in the History of the United States.”

‘Political Witch Hunt’

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And he said: “This is a Political Witch Hunt, and will lead to the destruction of New York State, with businesses and people fleeing by the thousands, while criminals continue to roam the streets. We will continue to appeal until Justice prevails!”

Trump’s Criminal Charges

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Trump also claims a “political witch hunt” by Democrats over 91 criminal charges he is facing that are spread over four indictments served against him last year. He is accused of plotting to overturn the result of the 2020 election that he lost to Biden, in Georgia and at federal level; of allegedly mishandling classified documents; and allegedly making hush money payments so an alleged affair would not be disclosed. 

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Among former President Donald Trump’s many and fierce critics is his niece Mary Trump, a writer and psychologist who has no time for her uncle and does not want him to win the presidential election this year, even if he is the Republican Party’s likely candidate. Now, as Trump tries to pay a massive fine for fraud, she has again repeated her criticism of Trump that he is a “loser.” 

Trump ‘Fearful of Truth’

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Mary Trump, whose 2020 book Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World’s Most Dangerous Man, says Trump does not want “the truth” about him revealed as he scrambles to find half a billion dollars to appeal two recent verdicts against him. 

Trump ‘Terrified’

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Speaking in an interview with MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell, she said her uncle “is terrified about having the truth about him be known, not just to other people, but to himself.”

‘Untreated Psychiatric Disorders’

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Mary Trump, 58, said: “This is a person who has untreated psychiatric disorders, and any untreated disorder of any kind worsens over time as long as it remains untreated.”

‘Unhealthy Trump’

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She said “it makes perfect sense that somebody who is as unhealthy as he is who is under the extraordinary amount of stress he’s under would have a harder time holding it together cognitively.”

‘Past Confidence’

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She added that “[t]he other thing that I think is interesting [is that] Donald was always quite good when he was younger at sticking to a point and he knew certain things about his business, so he could say perfectly reasonable statements … with confidence.”

Trump’s Media Success

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And she said: “Let’s be fair, he was very good at being in the media, and that’s one of the main reasons my grandfather chose him to be his successor because he had that kind of presence.”

Trump ‘a Loser’

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But Trump’s niece said that in the wake of two devastating verdicts for Trump and as he is facing 91 criminal charges under four indictments, “He is, quite simply, a loser.”

Trump’s Medical Tests

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The former President, who is 77 and also facing questions about his advanced age, said in December that he underwent a physical and a cognitive test recently and that no issues were discovered. He said at a campaign stop in Iowa: “I took a physical and I passed with flying colors. And I took a cognitive exam. I said, ‘Doctor, give me anything you want; I want to take it.’” 

‘Aced the Exam’

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Trump claimed that President Biden, who is also under scrutiny over his 81 years as he campaigns for reelection, “cannot pass a cognitive exam.” He added that “I took a cognitive exam, and I aced it.”

Trump’s Memory Test

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While in office in 2020 and seeking reelection but losing to Biden that year, Trump said in a TV interview that he had scored well on a memory test. “The first questions are very easy; the last questions are much more difficult. Like a memory question. It’s like, you’ll go, ‘Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.’ So they’d say, ‘Could you repeat that.’ So I said, ‘Yeah. So it’s person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.’”

Trump’s Enormous Fines

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Last month a judge in New York City fined Trump and his adult sons Donald Jr and Eric $354 million after finding them guilty of fraud by inflating that value of their real estate assets to obtain favorable loan terms and insurance. But with backdated interest added, the sum balloons to $454 million. The month before, another New York City court ordered Trump to pay writer E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million in damages after finding him guilty of defamation. That was after he was found guilty in proceedings last year of sexual assault against Carroll and told to pay her $5 million.  

Trump’s Appeals, and Cash Crunch

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Trump is attempting to appeal the two recent verdicts, but under New York law he must at the same time pay the fines to the appellate court, which will hold it in escrow. Trump said in sworn testimony for his fraud trial that he had more than $400 million in cash on hand, even though he is estimated, by Forbes magazine, to be worth in the region of $2.6 billion. Most real estate developers’ capital is, however, tied up in their assets and is not liquid. 

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President Joe Biden’s unwavering support of Israel as it conducts a war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has left around 30,000 people dead has cost him at the primary ballot box. 

Biden’s Michigan Win 

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While Biden won the Michigan primary on Tuesday, with 81.1 percent of the vote, “uncommitted” votes tallied at just over 101,000 or 13 percent of the ballot – in a protest vote organized by a group called Listen to Michigan. Rivals Marianne Willamson got 3 percent of the Michigan vote and Dean Phillips won 2.7 percent. 

‘Count Us Out’

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Listen to Michigan says it was “sending Biden a clear message in the February 27 Democratic primary that he can count us out. We are filling out the UNCOMMITTED bubble because we strongly reject Biden’s funding war and genocide in Gaza.”

October 7 

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Hamas militants launched a surprise attack on Israel last October, firing rockets into the country and paragliding into a music festival, where they opened fire on young Israelis. More than 1,200 were killed in the worst assault in Israel’s history, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said was the country’s 9/11. Hamas took more than 100 Israelis hostage in the attack. The hardline leader, who is in a coalition with right-wing religious parties, vowed revenge and launched a war to eradicate Hamas in Gaza, which it rules. 

30,000 People

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More than 30,000 people have since died in the warfare in Gaza, the Hamas-run Health Ministry said this week. There are ongoing difficulties getting humanitarian aid, including food supplies, into the besieged territory, officials said. 

Biden’s Support

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Biden has said he backs Netanyahu in its war against Hamas and in a show of support he visited Israel last October. But he said Palestinian lives must be protected. The President’s new national security bill contains billions of dollars in aid for the country, but has floundered in the House after passing in the Senate in February. 

Biden to Netanyahu

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In an appearance on Late Night with Seth Meyers on Monday that was broadcast the following day, President Biden warned that with the Palestinian death toll rising, Israel could risk losing international backing for its military offensive. 

‘Going to Lose Support’

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Biden said: “Israel has had the overwhelming support of the vast majority of nations. If it keeps this up with this incredibly conservative government they have … they’re going to lose support from around the world.”

A Ramadan Pause?

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The President said that the Muslim fasting month of “Ramadan is coming up, and there’s been an agreement by the Israelis that they would not engage in activities during Ramadan as well, in order to give us time to get all the hostages out.” Ramadan falls on March 10 this year. 

Israeli ‘Commitment to Biden’

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Biden added that “[i]n the meantime, there are too many innocent people that are being killed. Israel has slowed down the attacks and Rafah. They have to, and they’ve made a commitment to me [that] they’re going to see to it that there’s an ability to evacuate significant portions of Rafah before they go and take out the remainder of Hamas.”

‘Warning Shot’ to Biden 

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Following the protest vote in Michigan, political analysts said it was a “warning shot” to the Democratic Party that Biden could suffer more in the polls as primary season continues and eventually at the ballot box on November 5 if he maintains his staunch support of Israel.

Biden’s Second Term Hope

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Biden is seeking a second term in office along with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate and is the leading Democratic candidate for the party’s nomination. But concerns among voters about Israel’s war and the Palestinian death toll aside, most Americans believe Biden, at 81, is too old to run again and would prefer a younger candidate, polls show. 

Biden’s Trump Remark 

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Biden said in his sit-down with Meyers that his likely rival in the presidential contest, Donald Trump, was just as old as him and that the 77-year-old Republican had recently called his wife, Melania Mercedes. He said: “You got to take a look at the other guy – he’s about as old as I am, but he can’t remember his wife’s name.”

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who controversially ditched his storied family’s Democratic Party for a presidential bid as an Independent, will appear on the ballot in November in Arizona and Georgia, posing a potential threat to leading GOP nominee Donald Trump, political analysts said. 

‘Taking Votes from Trump’

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Kennedy, 70, the son of senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of his brother President John F. Kennedy, both of whom were assassinated, may take votes from Trump in the two swing states, according to polls in the two states by Boston’s Emerson College and The Hill political news website. 

Trump Ahead in Arizona and Georgia 

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In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and President Joe Biden, the likely Democratic nominee, Trump comes out on top with voters in Arizona and Georgia – 46 percent vs 43 percent for the former and almost 40 percent compared to nearly 34 percent for the latter state. 

Siphoning Off Votes

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The worry for Trump, and also Biden, given that many Democrats feel loyal to the Kennedy family, is that with a small margin of votes, a third party such as an Independent candidate can siphon votes from either the Republican or Democratic runner, political analysts say. 

Arizona Female Vote 

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Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Independent voters narrowly break for Biden, 40 percent to 38 percent. Another key group that carried Biden’s win in Arizona in 2020 was the female vote, who are split between Trump and Biden with 44 percent apiece.”

RFK Jr’s Controversial Views 

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Still, some voters might be turned off Kennedy due to his controversial views on covid – during the pandemic, he urged parents not to vaccinate their children – crime, immigration and abortion. 

Kennedy’s Crime Proposals 

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On crime, Kennedy says he would bring in a federal anti-Black hate crime law and appoint an attorney general to investigate police misconduct and hate crimes. He has also vowed to “transform the police,” saying on his website he would “incentivize [police officers] to prevent violence, not make unnecessary arrests. We will train them in deescalation and mediation skills and partner them with neighborhood organizations.”

On Immigration

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Kennedy says he supports more border enforcement amid an ongoing crisis along the southern border with Mexico as record numbers of undocumented migrants arrive in the US. He also says criminals who are not citizens of the United States should not be allowed to reach the country’s borders. 

Kennedy’s Abortion Views

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The Independent candidate initially said he would bring in a federal ban on abortions after three months of pregnancy but later appeared to backtrack. “I believe a decision to abort a child should be up to the woman during the first three months of life,” he told NBC. “Once a child is viable, outside the womb, I think then the state has an interest in protecting the child.”

Potential ‘Big Difference”

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Columbia University Political Science Professor Robert Y. Shapiro that Kennedy still could “make a big difference” in Arizona and Georgia’s presidential votes. 

Difference in Previous Elections 

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He told Newsweek: “This normally seems to happen anyway regarding third-party candidates, but they can still take a small number of votes that can make a difference in key states, as we saw in the 2000 and 2016 elections affecting the Democratic candidates.”

Biden and Trump’s Age Problem

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Complicating the election scenario, and possibly providing a boost to Kennedy, is the fact that most Americans think both Biden, 81, and Trump, 77, are too old to run again, polls show. They would instead prefer younger candidates for the 2024 election. 

‘Most Feared and Hated Candidate’

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In a new post on X, formerly Twitter, Kennedy said: “Although I grew up around the White House, I’m definitely not a career politician. I’m the most feared and hated candidate among the elites in Washington, D.C. because I’m not bought and I’m not buyable by corporate interests or by the big lobbyists.”

Kennedy ‘Gets It’

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He said: “I get it. You’re feeling disenfranchised, disillusioned, disenchanted with the whole political process. The folks in power have gotten your generation nowhere. They’ve crippled you with debt. They’ve lied to you.” He added: “Enough is enough. That’s why I’m running for president. And I look forward to earning your vote. Put me under a microscope. Hold me to account. I’m applying for a job, and you’re the recruiters. I can’t wait to see you on the campaign trail.”

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Investment advisor Kevin O’Leary says a threat by New York Attorney General Letitia James to seize former president Donald Trump’s assets if he cannot pay a nearly half a billion fine for fraud is akin to diktats by developing world nations. 

‘Venezuela, Not New York’

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O’Leary, head of start-up investment firm O’Leary Ventures, said the difficulty facing the GOP frontrunner for this year’s presidential election was “what happens in Venezuela, not New York.”

‘A Little Scary’

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Speaking on Fox Business show Mornings with Maria on Monday, O’Leary, 69, said: “Capital comes to America because of the stability of the justice system. This is not stable, in terms of many people’s eyes, domestically and internationally. Seizing assets happens in Venezuela; it doesn’t happen in New York. So this is a little scary.”

Trump’s Civil Fraud Case

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Trump, his adult sons Donald Jr and Eric and former executives of their retail empire, the Trump Organization, were found guilty in a Manhattan court of “persistent and repeated fraud” by lying about the value of their assets to get cheap loans and insurance. The judge overseeing the case, Arthur Engoron, issued a $354 million fine but with backdated interest, the figure soars to $454 million. And it rises by a further $112,000 for each day it is not paid. The defendants were also barred from doing business in New York for three years. 

Trump’s Appeal

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Trump is appealing the verdict, but under New York law, he must pay the full fine amount or post a bond to the appellate court, which holds it in escrow until a decision is made. This week, Trump’s legal team asked if they could pay just $100 million of the total.

‘Exorbitant and Punitive’ Fine

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Trump lawyers Clifford Robert, Alina Habba and Michael Farina said in a filing to an appeals court: “The exorbitant and punitive amount of the judgment, coupled with an unlawful and unconstitutional blanket prohibition on lending transactions, would make it impossible to secure and post a complete bond.”

‘Insufficient Liquid Assets’

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The New York Attorney General’s office opposed the lawyers’ request, saying that the “[d]efendants all but concede that Trump has insufficient liquid assets to satisfy the judgment; defendants would need ‘to raise capital.’ A prevailing plaintiff is entitled to have her award secured, and defendants have never demonstrated that Mr Trump’s liquid assets could satisfy the full amount of the judgment.” 

Denial of Request

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The appeals court denied Trump’s request, meaning he still has to pay the full fine amount upon appeal of Engoron’s verdict, or post a bond from a specialist firm that promises to pay the fine in total should Trump lose the appeal. 

‘No Victim Here’

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O’Leary said on Fox Business: “Remember there is no money lost; there’s no victim here. So essentially, just under half a billion-dollar fine for a situation where no monies were lost and the harmed party, supposedly the banks, were fully paid back.”

‘Reasonable Number’

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He said: “We are wondering does this make sense, asking ourselves how long will it take for the appellate court to bring down to a what reasonable number might be. I have no idea what that is.”

‘Exodus of Capital from New York’

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O’Leary claimed that in the wake of “quiet exodus of capital leaving New York” and that the money was instead “going to North Dakota, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Montana, Tennessee.”

‘New York No Longer on List’

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He said that in those states, “they have the same power and if you look at governors there, spending that much money, you are in partnership with the government. New York is no longer on that list.”

Another Big Fine

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The fraud trial fine is not the only fine Trump has recently been hit with. In January, a jury in New York agreed with writer E. Jean Carroll that Trump had defamed her following a trial last year in which another jury found him guilty of sexual assault against Carroll. In the latter case, the jury awarded the writer $5 million in damages, and the subsequent trial ordered that Trump had to pay her $83.3 million. 

Trump’s Cash Reserves

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In sworn testimony for the fraud trial, Trump — who is estimated by Forbes magazine to be worth around $2.6 billion — said he had more than $400 million in cash. But as that figure is not enough to pay his recent fines, he may have to start selling off some of his many properties around the country, legal analysts believe. 

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